Kao Fong (Taiwan) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 43.24
| 4510 Stock | TWD 47.60 4.30 9.93% |
Kao |
Kao Fong Target Price Odds to finish below 43.24
The tendency of Kao Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 43.24 or more in 90 days |
| 47.60 | 90 days | 43.24 | about 29.41 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kao Fong to drop to NT$ 43.24 or more in 90 days from now is about 29.41 (This Kao Fong Machinery probability density function shows the probability of Kao Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Kao Fong Machinery price to stay between NT$ 43.24 and its current price of NT$47.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 40.41 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Kao Fong has a beta of 0.39. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Kao Fong average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Kao Fong Machinery will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Kao Fong Machinery has an alpha of 0.2695, implying that it can generate a 0.27 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Kao Fong Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Kao Fong
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kao Fong Machinery. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Kao Fong Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kao Fong is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kao Fong's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kao Fong Machinery, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kao Fong within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Kao Fong Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kao Fong for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kao Fong Machinery can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Kao Fong Machinery generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Kao Fong Machinery has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Kao Fong Machinery has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Kao Fong Machinery has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.96 B. Net Loss for the year was (36.13 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 292.76 M. | |
| Kao Fong Machinery has accumulated about 1.18 B in cash with (4.71 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.93. | |
| Roughly 37.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Kao Fong Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kao Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kao Fong's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kao Fong's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 108 M |
Kao Fong Technical Analysis
Kao Fong's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kao Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kao Fong Machinery. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kao Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Kao Fong Predictive Forecast Models
Kao Fong's time-series forecasting models is one of many Kao Fong's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Kao Fong's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Kao Fong Machinery
Checking the ongoing alerts about Kao Fong for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Kao Fong Machinery help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Kao Fong Machinery generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Kao Fong Machinery has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Kao Fong Machinery has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Kao Fong Machinery has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.96 B. Net Loss for the year was (36.13 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 292.76 M. | |
| Kao Fong Machinery has accumulated about 1.18 B in cash with (4.71 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.93. | |
| Roughly 37.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Kao Stock Analysis
When running Kao Fong's price analysis, check to measure Kao Fong's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kao Fong is operating at the current time. Most of Kao Fong's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kao Fong's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kao Fong's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kao Fong to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.