ALFORMER Industrial (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 27.75
| 4558 Stock | TWD 44.75 0.30 0.67% |
ALFORMER |
ALFORMER Industrial Target Price Odds to finish below 27.75
The tendency of ALFORMER Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 27.75 or more in 90 days |
| 44.75 | 90 days | 27.75 | about 22.94 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ALFORMER Industrial to drop to NT$ 27.75 or more in 90 days from now is about 22.94 (This ALFORMER Industrial Co probability density function shows the probability of ALFORMER Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ALFORMER Industrial price to stay between NT$ 27.75 and its current price of NT$44.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 72.82 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ALFORMER Industrial Co has a beta of -0.47. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding ALFORMER Industrial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ALFORMER Industrial Co is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ALFORMER Industrial Co has an alpha of 0.7769, implying that it can generate a 0.78 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ALFORMER Industrial Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for ALFORMER Industrial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ALFORMER Industrial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ALFORMER Industrial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ALFORMER Industrial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ALFORMER Industrial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ALFORMER Industrial Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ALFORMER Industrial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.78 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.47 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.88 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
ALFORMER Industrial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ALFORMER Industrial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ALFORMER Industrial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ALFORMER Industrial appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| ALFORMER Industrial has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations |
ALFORMER Industrial Technical Analysis
ALFORMER Industrial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ALFORMER Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ALFORMER Industrial Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing ALFORMER Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ALFORMER Industrial Predictive Forecast Models
ALFORMER Industrial's time-series forecasting models is one of many ALFORMER Industrial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ALFORMER Industrial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ALFORMER Industrial
Checking the ongoing alerts about ALFORMER Industrial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ALFORMER Industrial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ALFORMER Industrial appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| ALFORMER Industrial has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations |
Additional Tools for ALFORMER Stock Analysis
When running ALFORMER Industrial's price analysis, check to measure ALFORMER Industrial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ALFORMER Industrial is operating at the current time. Most of ALFORMER Industrial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ALFORMER Industrial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ALFORMER Industrial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ALFORMER Industrial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.