Excelliance MOS (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 95.5
| 5299 Stock | TWD 89.10 2.00 2.20% |
Excelliance |
Excelliance MOS Target Price Odds to finish over 95.5
The tendency of Excelliance Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over NT$ 95.50 or more in 90 days |
| 89.10 | 90 days | 95.50 | about 78.85 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Excelliance MOS to move over NT$ 95.50 or more in 90 days from now is about 78.85 (This Excelliance MOS probability density function shows the probability of Excelliance Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Excelliance MOS price to stay between its current price of NT$ 89.10 and NT$ 95.50 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.69 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Excelliance MOS has a beta of -0.12. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Excelliance MOS are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Excelliance MOS is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Excelliance MOS has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Excelliance MOS Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Excelliance MOS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Excelliance MOS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Excelliance MOS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Excelliance MOS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Excelliance MOS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Excelliance MOS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Excelliance MOS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.25 |
Excelliance MOS Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Excelliance MOS for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Excelliance MOS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Excelliance MOS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 30.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Excelliance MOS Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Excelliance Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Excelliance MOS's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Excelliance MOS's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.5 M |
Excelliance MOS Technical Analysis
Excelliance MOS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Excelliance Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Excelliance MOS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Excelliance Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Excelliance MOS Predictive Forecast Models
Excelliance MOS's time-series forecasting models is one of many Excelliance MOS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Excelliance MOS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Excelliance MOS
Checking the ongoing alerts about Excelliance MOS for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Excelliance MOS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Excelliance MOS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 30.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Excelliance Stock Analysis
When running Excelliance MOS's price analysis, check to measure Excelliance MOS's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Excelliance MOS is operating at the current time. Most of Excelliance MOS's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Excelliance MOS's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Excelliance MOS's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Excelliance MOS to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.