Universal Insurance (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 19.76
| 5UI Stock | EUR 21.40 0.40 1.83% |
Universal |
Universal Insurance Target Price Odds to finish below 19.76
The tendency of Universal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 19.76 or more in 90 days |
| 21.40 | 90 days | 19.76 | about 73.66 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Universal Insurance to drop to € 19.76 or more in 90 days from now is about 73.66 (This Universal Insurance Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Universal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Universal Insurance price to stay between € 19.76 and its current price of €21.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 23.49 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Universal Insurance Holdings has a beta of -0.24. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Universal Insurance are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Universal Insurance Holdings is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Universal Insurance Holdings has an alpha of 0.292, implying that it can generate a 0.29 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Universal Insurance Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Universal Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Universal Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Universal Insurance Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Universal Insurance is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Universal Insurance's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Universal Insurance Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Universal Insurance within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.29 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Universal Insurance Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Universal Insurance for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Universal Insurance can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Universal Insurance had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Universal Insurance Holdings has accumulated 102.77 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 10.0, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Universal Insurance has a current ratio of 0.64, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Universal Insurance until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Universal Insurance's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Universal Insurance sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Universal to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Universal Insurance's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 1.22 B. Net Loss for the year was (22.26 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 70 M. | |
| About 69.0% of Universal Insurance shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Universal Insurance Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Universal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Universal Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Universal Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.4 M |
Universal Insurance Technical Analysis
Universal Insurance's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Universal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Universal Insurance Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Universal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Universal Insurance Predictive Forecast Models
Universal Insurance's time-series forecasting models is one of many Universal Insurance's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Universal Insurance's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Universal Insurance
Checking the ongoing alerts about Universal Insurance for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Universal Insurance help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Universal Insurance had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Universal Insurance Holdings has accumulated 102.77 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 10.0, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Universal Insurance has a current ratio of 0.64, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Universal Insurance until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Universal Insurance's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Universal Insurance sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Universal to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Universal Insurance's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 1.22 B. Net Loss for the year was (22.26 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 70 M. | |
| About 69.0% of Universal Insurance shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Universal Stock
When determining whether Universal Insurance is a strong investment it is important to analyze Universal Insurance's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Universal Insurance's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Universal Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Universal Insurance Backtesting, Universal Insurance Valuation, Universal Insurance Correlation, Universal Insurance Hype Analysis, Universal Insurance Volatility, Universal Insurance History as well as Universal Insurance Performance. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.