Changshu Tongrun (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 19.85
| 603201 Stock | 18.13 0.17 0.93% |
Changshu |
Changshu Tongrun Target Price Odds to finish below 19.85
The tendency of Changshu Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 19.85 after 90 days |
| 18.13 | 90 days | 19.85 | under 95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Changshu Tongrun to stay under 19.85 after 90 days from now is under 95 (This Changshu Tongrun Auto probability density function shows the probability of Changshu Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Changshu Tongrun Auto price to stay between its current price of 18.13 and 19.85 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.91 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Changshu Tongrun Auto has a beta of -0.32. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Changshu Tongrun are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Changshu Tongrun Auto is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Changshu Tongrun Auto has an alpha of 0.4348, implying that it can generate a 0.43 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Changshu Tongrun Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Changshu Tongrun
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Changshu Tongrun Auto. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Changshu Tongrun Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Changshu Tongrun is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Changshu Tongrun's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Changshu Tongrun Auto, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Changshu Tongrun within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.43 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Changshu Tongrun Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Changshu Tongrun for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Changshu Tongrun Auto can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Changshu Tongrun appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 96.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Discovering Undiscovered Gems with Potential in November 2024 - Yahoo Finance |
Changshu Tongrun Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Changshu Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Changshu Tongrun's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Changshu Tongrun's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 158 M |
Changshu Tongrun Technical Analysis
Changshu Tongrun's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Changshu Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Changshu Tongrun Auto. In general, you should focus on analyzing Changshu Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Changshu Tongrun Predictive Forecast Models
Changshu Tongrun's time-series forecasting models is one of many Changshu Tongrun's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Changshu Tongrun's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Changshu Tongrun Auto
Checking the ongoing alerts about Changshu Tongrun for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Changshu Tongrun Auto help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Changshu Tongrun appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 96.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Discovering Undiscovered Gems with Potential in November 2024 - Yahoo Finance |
Other Information on Investing in Changshu Stock
Changshu Tongrun financial ratios help investors to determine whether Changshu Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Changshu with respect to the benefits of owning Changshu Tongrun security.