Par Pacific (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 19.19
| 61P Stock | EUR 16.30 0.10 0.61% |
Par |
Par Pacific Target Price Odds to finish over 19.19
The tendency of Par Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over € 19.19 or more in 90 days |
| 16.30 | 90 days | 19.19 | about 1.7 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Par Pacific to move over € 19.19 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.7 (This Par Pacific Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Par Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Par Pacific Holdings price to stay between its current price of € 16.30 and € 19.19 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.78 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Par Pacific has a beta of 0.93. This suggests Par Pacific Holdings market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Par Pacific is expected to follow. Additionally Par Pacific Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Par Pacific Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Par Pacific
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Par Pacific Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Par Pacific Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Par Pacific is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Par Pacific's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Par Pacific Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Par Pacific within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.93 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Par Pacific Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Par Pacific for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Par Pacific Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Par Pacific Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Par Pacific Holdings has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Par Pacific Holdings has accumulated 553.72 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 5.88, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Par Pacific Holdings has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Par Pacific until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Par Pacific's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Par Pacific Holdings sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Par to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Par Pacific's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Par Pacific Holdings has accumulated about 174.33 M in cash with (27.62 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.89. | |
| Over 96.0% of Par Pacific shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Par Pacific Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Par Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Par Pacific's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Par Pacific's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 60.3 M |
Par Pacific Technical Analysis
Par Pacific's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Par Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Par Pacific Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Par Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Par Pacific Predictive Forecast Models
Par Pacific's time-series forecasting models is one of many Par Pacific's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Par Pacific's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Par Pacific Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Par Pacific for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Par Pacific Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Par Pacific Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Par Pacific Holdings has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Par Pacific Holdings has accumulated 553.72 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 5.88, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Par Pacific Holdings has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Par Pacific until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Par Pacific's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Par Pacific Holdings sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Par to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Par Pacific's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Par Pacific Holdings has accumulated about 174.33 M in cash with (27.62 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.89. | |
| Over 96.0% of Par Pacific shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Par Stock
When determining whether Par Pacific Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Par Pacific's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Par Pacific's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Par Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Par Pacific Backtesting, Par Pacific Valuation, Par Pacific Correlation, Par Pacific Hype Analysis, Par Pacific Volatility, Par Pacific History as well as Par Pacific Performance. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.