Nova Technology (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 186.50
| 6613 Stock | 186.50 7.00 3.62% |
Nova |
Nova Technology Target Price Odds to finish over 186.50
The tendency of Nova Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 186.50 | 90 days | 186.50 | about 16.65 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nova Technology to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 16.65 (This Nova Technology probability density function shows the probability of Nova Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Nova Technology has a beta of -0.33. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Nova Technology are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Nova Technology is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Nova Technology has an alpha of 0.4378, implying that it can generate a 0.44 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Nova Technology Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Nova Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nova Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Nova Technology Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nova Technology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nova Technology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nova Technology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nova Technology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.44 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 15.38 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
Nova Technology Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Nova Technology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Nova Technology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Nova Technology Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Nova Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Nova Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nova Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 33.9 M |
Nova Technology Technical Analysis
Nova Technology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Nova Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Nova Technology. In general, you should focus on analyzing Nova Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Nova Technology Predictive Forecast Models
Nova Technology's time-series forecasting models is one of many Nova Technology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Nova Technology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Nova Technology
Checking the ongoing alerts about Nova Technology for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Nova Technology help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Nova Stock Analysis
When running Nova Technology's price analysis, check to measure Nova Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nova Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Nova Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nova Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nova Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nova Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.