Agios Pharmaceuticals (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 47.95
| 8AP Stock | EUR 52.50 1.50 2.94% |
Agios |
Agios Pharmaceuticals Target Price Odds to finish below 47.95
The tendency of Agios Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 47.95 or more in 90 days |
| 52.50 | 90 days | 47.95 | about 86.72 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Agios Pharmaceuticals to drop to € 47.95 or more in 90 days from now is about 86.72 (This Agios Pharmaceuticals probability density function shows the probability of Agios Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Agios Pharmaceuticals price to stay between € 47.95 and its current price of €52.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.34 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Agios Pharmaceuticals will likely underperform. Additionally Agios Pharmaceuticals has an alpha of 0.256, implying that it can generate a 0.26 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Agios Pharmaceuticals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Agios Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agios Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Agios Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Agios Pharmaceuticals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Agios Pharmaceuticals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Agios Pharmaceuticals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Agios Pharmaceuticals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.26 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.97 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
Agios Pharmaceuticals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Agios Pharmaceuticals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Agios Pharmaceuticals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Agios Pharmaceuticals had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 14.24 M. Net Loss for the year was (231.8 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 140.39 M. | |
| Agios Pharmaceuticals has accumulated about 495.39 M in cash with (309.48 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.43. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Agios Pharmaceuticals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Agios Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Agios Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agios Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54.9 M | |
| Shares Float | 48.5 M |
Agios Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Agios Pharmaceuticals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Agios Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Agios Pharmaceuticals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Agios Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Agios Pharmaceuticals Predictive Forecast Models
Agios Pharmaceuticals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Agios Pharmaceuticals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Agios Pharmaceuticals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Agios Pharmaceuticals
Checking the ongoing alerts about Agios Pharmaceuticals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Agios Pharmaceuticals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Agios Pharmaceuticals had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 14.24 M. Net Loss for the year was (231.8 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 140.39 M. | |
| Agios Pharmaceuticals has accumulated about 495.39 M in cash with (309.48 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.43. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Other Information on Investing in Agios Stock
Agios Pharmaceuticals financial ratios help investors to determine whether Agios Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Agios with respect to the benefits of owning Agios Pharmaceuticals security.