Evolent Health (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 7.65
| 9EH Stock | EUR 10.70 0.30 2.73% |
Evolent |
Evolent Health Target Price Odds to finish over 7.65
The tendency of Evolent Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above € 7.65 in 90 days |
| 10.70 | 90 days | 7.65 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Evolent Health to stay above € 7.65 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Evolent Health probability density function shows the probability of Evolent Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Evolent Health price to stay between € 7.65 and its current price of €10.7 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.2 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Evolent Health has a beta of 0.78. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Evolent Health average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Evolent Health will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Evolent Health has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Evolent Health Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Evolent Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evolent Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Evolent Health Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Evolent Health is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Evolent Health's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Evolent Health, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Evolent Health within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -1.43 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.78 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.25 |
Evolent Health Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Evolent Health for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Evolent Health can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Evolent Health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Evolent Health has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.35 B. Net Loss for the year was (19.16 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 316.58 M. | |
| Evolent Health has accumulated about 172.86 M in cash with (11.55 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.11. | |
| Over 93.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Evolent Health Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Evolent Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Evolent Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evolent Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 101.6 M |
Evolent Health Technical Analysis
Evolent Health's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Evolent Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Evolent Health. In general, you should focus on analyzing Evolent Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Evolent Health Predictive Forecast Models
Evolent Health's time-series forecasting models is one of many Evolent Health's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Evolent Health's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Evolent Health
Checking the ongoing alerts about Evolent Health for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Evolent Health help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Evolent Health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Evolent Health has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.35 B. Net Loss for the year was (19.16 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 316.58 M. | |
| Evolent Health has accumulated about 172.86 M in cash with (11.55 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.11. | |
| Over 93.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Evolent Stock
When determining whether Evolent Health offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Evolent Health's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Evolent Health Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Evolent Health Stock:Check out Evolent Health Backtesting, Evolent Health Valuation, Evolent Health Correlation, Evolent Health Hype Analysis, Evolent Health Volatility, Evolent Health History as well as Evolent Health Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Evolent Stock please use our How to Invest in Evolent Health guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.