Agilent Technologies (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 399.88
| A1GI34 Stock | 402.87 0.00 0.00% |
Agilent |
Agilent Technologies Target Price Odds to finish below 399.88
The tendency of Agilent Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 399.88 or more in 90 days |
| 402.87 | 90 days | 399.88 | about 61.85 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Agilent Technologies to drop to 399.88 or more in 90 days from now is about 61.85 (This Agilent Technologies probability density function shows the probability of Agilent Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Agilent Technologies price to stay between 399.88 and its current price of 402.87 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.52 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Agilent Technologies has a beta of 0.61. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Agilent Technologies average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Agilent Technologies will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Agilent Technologies has an alpha of 0.074, implying that it can generate a 0.074 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Agilent Technologies Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Agilent Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agilent Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Agilent Technologies Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Agilent Technologies is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Agilent Technologies' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Agilent Technologies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Agilent Technologies within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 16.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Agilent Technologies Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Agilent Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Agilent Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agilent Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 295 M |
Agilent Technologies Technical Analysis
Agilent Technologies' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Agilent Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Agilent Technologies. In general, you should focus on analyzing Agilent Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Agilent Technologies Predictive Forecast Models
Agilent Technologies' time-series forecasting models is one of many Agilent Technologies' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Agilent Technologies' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Agilent Technologies in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Agilent Technologies' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Agilent Technologies options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Agilent Stock
When determining whether Agilent Technologies offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Agilent Technologies' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Agilent Technologies Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Agilent Technologies Stock:Check out Agilent Technologies Backtesting, Agilent Technologies Valuation, Agilent Technologies Correlation, Agilent Technologies Hype Analysis, Agilent Technologies Volatility, Agilent Technologies History as well as Agilent Technologies Performance. For information on how to trade Agilent Stock refer to our How to Trade Agilent Stock guide.You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.