Autohome (Brazil) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 18.38
| A1TH34 Stock | BRL 16.00 0.26 1.60% |
Autohome |
Autohome Target Price Odds to finish over 18.38
The tendency of Autohome Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over R$ 18.38 or more in 90 days |
| 16.00 | 90 days | 18.38 | about 6.42 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Autohome to move over R$ 18.38 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.42 (This Autohome probability density function shows the probability of Autohome Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Autohome price to stay between its current price of R$ 16.00 and R$ 18.38 at the end of the 90-day period is about 47.08 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Autohome has a beta of 0.57. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Autohome average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Autohome will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Autohome has an alpha of 0.2493, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Autohome Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Autohome
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Autohome. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Autohome Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Autohome is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Autohome's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Autohome, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Autohome within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.57 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.48 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Autohome Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Autohome Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Autohome's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Autohome's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 505.2 M |
Autohome Technical Analysis
Autohome's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Autohome Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Autohome. In general, you should focus on analyzing Autohome Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Autohome Predictive Forecast Models
Autohome's time-series forecasting models is one of many Autohome's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Autohome's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Autohome in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Autohome's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Autohome options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Autohome Stock
When determining whether Autohome is a strong investment it is important to analyze Autohome's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Autohome's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Autohome Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Autohome Backtesting, Autohome Valuation, Autohome Correlation, Autohome Hype Analysis, Autohome Volatility, Autohome History as well as Autohome Performance. For information on how to trade Autohome Stock refer to our How to Trade Autohome Stock guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.