American Defense Systems Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 1.0E-4

ADFS Stock  USD 0.0001  0.00  0.00%   
American Defense's future price is the expected price of American Defense instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of American Defense Systems performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out American Defense Analysis, American Defense Valuation, American Defense Correlation, American Defense Hype Analysis, American Defense Volatility, American Defense Price History as well as American Defense Performance.
  
Please specify American Defense's target price for which you would like American Defense odds to be computed.

American Defense Target Price Odds to finish over 1.0E-4

The tendency of American Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 0.0001 90 days 0.0001 
about 40.59
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Defense to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 40.59 (This American Defense Systems probability density function shows the probability of American Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days American Defense has the beta coefficient that is very close to zero. This suggests the returns on DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL and American Defense do not appear to be related. Additionally It does not look like American Defense's alpha can have any bearing on the current valuation.
   American Defense Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for American Defense

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Defense Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.000150.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.00006350.01
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.0000020.000099127.84
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.0000940.0000940.000094
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Defense. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Defense's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Defense's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in American Defense Systems.

American Defense Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Defense is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Defense's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Defense Systems, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Defense within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.00
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.00
σ
Overall volatility
0.000021
Ir
Information ratio 0.00

American Defense Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Defense for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Defense Systems can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
American Defense is way too risky over 90 days horizon
American Defense has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
American Defense appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
American Defense has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company has a current ratio of 0.51, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist American Defense until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, American Defense's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like American Defense Systems sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about American Defense's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
American Defense Systems reported the previous year's revenue of 6.13 M. Net Loss for the year was (1.06 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.37 M.
American Defense Systems currently holds about 150.74 K in cash with (154.53 K) of positive cash flow from operations.
Roughly 13.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

American Defense Technical Analysis

American Defense's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Defense Systems. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

American Defense Predictive Forecast Models

American Defense's time-series forecasting models is one of many American Defense's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Defense's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about American Defense Systems

Checking the ongoing alerts about American Defense for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Defense Systems help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
American Defense is way too risky over 90 days horizon
American Defense has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
American Defense appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
American Defense has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company has a current ratio of 0.51, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist American Defense until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, American Defense's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like American Defense Systems sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about American Defense's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
American Defense Systems reported the previous year's revenue of 6.13 M. Net Loss for the year was (1.06 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.37 M.
American Defense Systems currently holds about 150.74 K in cash with (154.53 K) of positive cash flow from operations.
Roughly 13.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Additional Tools for American Pink Sheet Analysis

When running American Defense's price analysis, check to measure American Defense's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Defense is operating at the current time. Most of American Defense's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Defense's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Defense's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Defense to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.