Adams Resources Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 33.9
| AE Stock | USD 37.40 0.20 0.54% |
Adams |
Adams Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 33.9
The tendency of Adams Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 33.90 or more in 90 days |
| 37.40 | 90 days | 33.90 | about 92.56 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Adams Resources to drop to $ 33.90 or more in 90 days from now is about 92.56 (This Adams Resources Energy probability density function shows the probability of Adams Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Adams Resources Energy price to stay between $ 33.90 and its current price of $37.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.15 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Adams Resources Energy has a beta of -0.63. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Adams Resources are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Adams Resources Energy is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Adams Resources Energy has an alpha of 0.878, implying that it can generate a 0.88 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Adams Resources Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Adams Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adams Resources Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adams Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Adams Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Adams Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Adams Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Adams Resources Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Adams Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.88 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.63 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.41 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Adams Resources Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Adams Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Adams Resources Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Adams Resources appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Adams Resources has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Kuehn Law Encourages AVAV, AE, CDMO, and ALTR Investors to Contact Law Firm |
Adams Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Adams Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Adams Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Adams Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 33.3 M |
Adams Resources Technical Analysis
Adams Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Adams Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Adams Resources Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Adams Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Adams Resources Predictive Forecast Models
Adams Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Adams Resources' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Adams Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Adams Resources Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about Adams Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Adams Resources Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Adams Resources appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Adams Resources has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Kuehn Law Encourages AVAV, AE, CDMO, and ALTR Investors to Contact Law Firm |
Check out Adams Resources Backtesting, Adams Resources Valuation, Adams Resources Correlation, Adams Resources Hype Analysis, Adams Resources Volatility, Adams Resources History as well as Adams Resources Performance. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Is Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Adams Resources. If investors know Adams will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Adams Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.763 | Dividend Share 0.24 | Earnings Share (3.18) | Revenue Per Share 1.1 K | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) |
The market value of Adams Resources Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Adams that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Adams Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Adams Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Adams Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Adams Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Adams Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Adams Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Adams Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.