Aegon Funding Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 21.46
| AEFC Stock | USD 21.81 0.16 0.74% |
Aegon |
Aegon Funding Target Price Odds to finish below 21.46
The tendency of Aegon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 21.46 or more in 90 days |
| 21.81 | 90 days | 21.46 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aegon Funding to drop to $ 21.46 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Aegon Funding probability density function shows the probability of Aegon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aegon Funding price to stay between $ 21.46 and its current price of $21.81 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.62 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Aegon Funding has a beta of 0.0131. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aegon Funding average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aegon Funding will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aegon Funding has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Aegon Funding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aegon Funding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aegon Funding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aegon Funding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aegon Funding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aegon Funding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aegon Funding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aegon Funding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.43 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.23 |
Aegon Funding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aegon Funding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aegon Funding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aegon Funding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Aegon Raises Views, Launches 158 Million Share Buyback - MSN |
Aegon Funding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aegon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aegon Funding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aegon Funding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.0254 |
Aegon Funding Technical Analysis
Aegon Funding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aegon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aegon Funding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aegon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aegon Funding Predictive Forecast Models
Aegon Funding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aegon Funding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aegon Funding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aegon Funding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aegon Funding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aegon Funding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aegon Funding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Aegon Raises Views, Launches 158 Million Share Buyback - MSN |
Check out Aegon Funding Backtesting, Aegon Funding Valuation, Aegon Funding Correlation, Aegon Funding Hype Analysis, Aegon Funding Volatility, Aegon Funding History as well as Aegon Funding Performance. For information on how to trade Aegon Stock refer to our How to Trade Aegon Stock guide.You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aegon Funding. If investors know Aegon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aegon Funding listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Aegon Funding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aegon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aegon Funding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aegon Funding's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aegon Funding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aegon Funding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aegon Funding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aegon Funding is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aegon Funding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.