Allied Electronics (South Africa) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2,041
| AEL Stock | 1,985 15.00 0.76% |
Allied |
Allied Electronics Target Price Odds to finish below 2,041
The tendency of Allied Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 1,985 | 90 days | 1,985 | more than 93.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Allied Electronics to move below current price in 90 days from now is more than 93.0 (This Allied Electronics probability density function shows the probability of Allied Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Allied Electronics has a beta of 0.0641. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Allied Electronics average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Allied Electronics will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Allied Electronics has an alpha of 0.1984, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Allied Electronics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Allied Electronics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allied Electronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Allied Electronics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Allied Electronics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Allied Electronics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Allied Electronics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Allied Electronics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 113.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Allied Electronics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Allied Electronics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Allied Electronics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the revenue of 7.93 B. Net Loss for the year was (104 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.74 B. | |
| About 64.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Allied Electronics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Allied Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Allied Electronics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Allied Electronics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 375.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 757 M |
Allied Electronics Technical Analysis
Allied Electronics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Allied Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Allied Electronics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Allied Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Allied Electronics Predictive Forecast Models
Allied Electronics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Allied Electronics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Allied Electronics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Allied Electronics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Allied Electronics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Allied Electronics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the revenue of 7.93 B. Net Loss for the year was (104 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.74 B. | |
| About 64.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Other Information on Investing in Allied Stock
Allied Electronics financial ratios help investors to determine whether Allied Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Allied with respect to the benefits of owning Allied Electronics security.