American Balanced Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 36.53
| AFMBX Fund | USD 36.53 0.11 0.30% |
AMERICAN |
American Balanced Target Price Odds to finish over 36.53
The tendency of AMERICAN Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 36.53 | 90 days | 36.53 | about 17.36 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Balanced to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 17.36 (This American Balanced Fund probability density function shows the probability of AMERICAN Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon American Balanced has a beta of 0.54. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American Balanced average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Balanced Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American Balanced Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. American Balanced Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for American Balanced
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Balanced. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.American Balanced Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Balanced is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Balanced's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Balanced Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Balanced within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.54 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.50 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
American Balanced Technical Analysis
American Balanced's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AMERICAN Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Balanced Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing AMERICAN Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American Balanced Predictive Forecast Models
American Balanced's time-series forecasting models is one of many American Balanced's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Balanced's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Balanced in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Balanced's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Balanced options trading.
Other Information on Investing in AMERICAN Mutual Fund
American Balanced financial ratios help investors to determine whether AMERICAN Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AMERICAN with respect to the benefits of owning American Balanced security.
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