Austral Gold Limited Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 0.0228
| AGLDF Stock | USD 0.02 0.01 110.20% |
Austral |
Austral Gold Target Price Odds to finish over 0.0228
The tendency of Austral Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 0.02 or more in 90 days |
| 0.02 | 90 days | 0.02 | about 30.18 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Austral Gold to move over $ 0.02 or more in 90 days from now is about 30.18 (This Austral Gold Limited probability density function shows the probability of Austral Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Austral Gold Limited price to stay between its current price of $ 0.02 and $ 0.02 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.86 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Austral Gold Limited has a beta of -3.25. This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Austral Gold Limited are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Austral Gold is expected to outperform its benchmark. In addition to that Austral Gold Limited has an alpha of 7.0978, implying that it can generate a 7.1 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Austral Gold Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Austral Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Austral Gold Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Austral Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Austral Gold Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Austral Gold is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Austral Gold's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Austral Gold Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Austral Gold within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 7.10 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -3.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
Austral Gold Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Austral Gold for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Austral Gold Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Austral Gold Limited is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Austral Gold Limited has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Austral Gold Limited appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Austral Gold Limited has accumulated 415 K in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.23, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Austral Gold Limited has a current ratio of 0.72, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Austral Gold until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Austral Gold's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Austral Gold Limited sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Austral to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Austral Gold's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 64.39 M. Net Loss for the year was (7.32 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 12.72 M. | |
| About 89.0% of Austral Gold shares are held by company insiders |
Austral Gold Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Austral Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Austral Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Austral Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 612.3 M |
Austral Gold Technical Analysis
Austral Gold's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Austral Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Austral Gold Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Austral Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Austral Gold Predictive Forecast Models
Austral Gold's time-series forecasting models is one of many Austral Gold's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Austral Gold's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Austral Gold Limited
Checking the ongoing alerts about Austral Gold for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Austral Gold Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Austral Gold Limited is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Austral Gold Limited has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Austral Gold Limited appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Austral Gold Limited has accumulated 415 K in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.23, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Austral Gold Limited has a current ratio of 0.72, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Austral Gold until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Austral Gold's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Austral Gold Limited sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Austral to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Austral Gold's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 64.39 M. Net Loss for the year was (7.32 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 12.72 M. | |
| About 89.0% of Austral Gold shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Austral Pink Sheet
Austral Gold financial ratios help investors to determine whether Austral Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Austral with respect to the benefits of owning Austral Gold security.