Aegon NV (Netherlands) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.96
| AGN Stock | EUR 5.96 0.03 0.51% |
Aegon |
Aegon NV Target Price Odds to finish over 5.96
The tendency of Aegon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 5.96 | 90 days | 5.96 | about 16.81 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aegon NV to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 16.81 (This Aegon NV probability density function shows the probability of Aegon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Aegon NV has a beta of 0.88. This suggests Aegon NV market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Aegon NV is expected to follow. Additionally Aegon NV has an alpha of 0.0687, implying that it can generate a 0.0687 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aegon NV Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Aegon NV
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aegon NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aegon NV Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aegon NV is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aegon NV's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aegon NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aegon NV within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.88 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Aegon NV Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aegon NV for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aegon NV can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aegon NV has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Aegon NV has accumulated about 19.24 B in cash with (1.8 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 9.35, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Aegon NV Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aegon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aegon NV's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aegon NV's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2 B |
Aegon NV Technical Analysis
Aegon NV's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aegon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aegon NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aegon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aegon NV Predictive Forecast Models
Aegon NV's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aegon NV's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aegon NV's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aegon NV
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aegon NV for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aegon NV help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aegon NV has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Aegon NV has accumulated about 19.24 B in cash with (1.8 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 9.35, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Aegon Stock Analysis
When running Aegon NV's price analysis, check to measure Aegon NV's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aegon NV is operating at the current time. Most of Aegon NV's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aegon NV's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aegon NV's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aegon NV to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.