Adecoagro Sa Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 10.41
| AGRO Stock | USD 10.75 0.17 1.56% |
Adecoagro |
Adecoagro Target Price Odds to finish below 10.41
The tendency of Adecoagro Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 10.41 or more in 90 days |
| 10.75 | 90 days | 10.41 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Adecoagro to drop to $ 10.41 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Adecoagro SA probability density function shows the probability of Adecoagro Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Adecoagro SA price to stay between $ 10.41 and its current price of $10.75 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.03 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Adecoagro has a beta of 0.0367. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Adecoagro average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Adecoagro SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Adecoagro SA has an alpha of 0.0116, implying that it can generate a 0.0116 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Adecoagro Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Adecoagro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adecoagro SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Adecoagro Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Adecoagro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Adecoagro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Adecoagro SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Adecoagro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.23 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Adecoagro Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Adecoagro for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Adecoagro SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Adecoagro SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 65.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 27th of November 2024 Adecoagro paid $ 0.174 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Adecoagro SA Q3 2024 Earnings Call Highlights Strategic Investments Amidst Challenging ... |
Adecoagro Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Adecoagro Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Adecoagro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Adecoagro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 107.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 339.8 M |
Adecoagro Technical Analysis
Adecoagro's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Adecoagro Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Adecoagro SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Adecoagro Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Adecoagro Predictive Forecast Models
Adecoagro's time-series forecasting models is one of many Adecoagro's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Adecoagro's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Adecoagro SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Adecoagro for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Adecoagro SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Adecoagro SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 65.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 27th of November 2024 Adecoagro paid $ 0.174 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Adecoagro SA Q3 2024 Earnings Call Highlights Strategic Investments Amidst Challenging ... |
Check out Adecoagro Backtesting, Adecoagro Valuation, Adecoagro Correlation, Adecoagro Hype Analysis, Adecoagro Volatility, Adecoagro History as well as Adecoagro Performance. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Is Packaged Foods & Meats space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Adecoagro. If investors know Adecoagro will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Adecoagro listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.78) | Earnings Share 1.5 | Revenue Per Share 12.555 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.021 | Return On Assets 0.0375 |
The market value of Adecoagro SA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Adecoagro that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Adecoagro's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Adecoagro's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Adecoagro's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Adecoagro's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Adecoagro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Adecoagro is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Adecoagro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.