Askari Bank (Pakistan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 27.77
| AKBL Stock | 39.82 3.52 9.70% |
Askari |
Askari Bank Target Price Odds to finish below 27.77
The tendency of Askari Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 27.77 or more in 90 days |
| 39.82 | 90 days | 27.77 | about 53.07 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Askari Bank to drop to 27.77 or more in 90 days from now is about 53.07 (This Askari Bank probability density function shows the probability of Askari Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Askari Bank price to stay between 27.77 and its current price of 39.82 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.78 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Askari Bank has a beta of 0.52. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Askari Bank average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Askari Bank will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Askari Bank has an alpha of 0.4673, implying that it can generate a 0.47 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Askari Bank Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Askari Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Askari Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Askari Bank Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Askari Bank is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Askari Bank's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Askari Bank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Askari Bank within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.47 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.52 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.85 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.18 |
Askari Bank Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Askari Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Askari Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Askari Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Dividends Paid | 3.7 B |
Askari Bank Technical Analysis
Askari Bank's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Askari Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Askari Bank. In general, you should focus on analyzing Askari Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Askari Bank Predictive Forecast Models
Askari Bank's time-series forecasting models is one of many Askari Bank's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Askari Bank's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Askari Bank in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Askari Bank's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Askari Bank options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Askari Stock
Askari Bank financial ratios help investors to determine whether Askari Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Askari with respect to the benefits of owning Askari Bank security.