Fleury Michon (France) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 25.17
| ALFLE Stock | EUR 25.00 0.20 0.81% |
Fleury |
Fleury Michon Target Price Odds to finish over 25.17
The tendency of Fleury Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over € 25.17 or more in 90 days |
| 25.00 | 90 days | 25.17 | about 60.75 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fleury Michon to move over € 25.17 or more in 90 days from now is about 60.75 (This Fleury Michon probability density function shows the probability of Fleury Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fleury Michon price to stay between its current price of € 25.00 and € 25.17 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Fleury Michon has a beta of -0.15. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Fleury Michon are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Fleury Michon is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Fleury Michon has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Fleury Michon Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Fleury Michon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fleury Michon. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fleury Michon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fleury Michon Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fleury Michon is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fleury Michon's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fleury Michon, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fleury Michon within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
Fleury Michon Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Fleury Michon for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Fleury Michon can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Fleury Michon generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 68.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Fleury Michon Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Fleury Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Fleury Michon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fleury Michon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 79.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 157.9 M |
Fleury Michon Technical Analysis
Fleury Michon's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fleury Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fleury Michon. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fleury Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Fleury Michon Predictive Forecast Models
Fleury Michon's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fleury Michon's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fleury Michon's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Fleury Michon
Checking the ongoing alerts about Fleury Michon for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Fleury Michon help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Fleury Michon generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 68.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Fleury Stock Analysis
When running Fleury Michon's price analysis, check to measure Fleury Michon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fleury Michon is operating at the current time. Most of Fleury Michon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fleury Michon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fleury Michon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fleury Michon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.