Alior Bank (Poland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 107.58
| ALR Stock | 91.30 0.64 0.70% |
Alior |
Alior Bank Target Price Odds to finish over 107.58
The tendency of Alior Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 107.58 or more in 90 days |
| 91.30 | 90 days | 107.58 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alior Bank to move over 107.58 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Alior Bank SA probability density function shows the probability of Alior Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alior Bank SA price to stay between its current price of 91.30 and 107.58 at the end of the 90-day period is about 65.63 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alior Bank SA has a beta of -0.18. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Alior Bank are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Alior Bank SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Alior Bank SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Alior Bank Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Alior Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alior Bank SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alior Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alior Bank Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alior Bank is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alior Bank's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alior Bank SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alior Bank within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Alior Bank Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alior Bank for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alior Bank SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alior Bank SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 32.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Alior Bank Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alior Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alior Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alior Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 130.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.8 B |
Alior Bank Technical Analysis
Alior Bank's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alior Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alior Bank SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alior Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alior Bank Predictive Forecast Models
Alior Bank's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alior Bank's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alior Bank's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alior Bank SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alior Bank for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alior Bank SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alior Bank SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 32.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Alior Stock Analysis
When running Alior Bank's price analysis, check to measure Alior Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alior Bank is operating at the current time. Most of Alior Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alior Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alior Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alior Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.