Ateliers Mecaniques (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 119.86

AMIN Stock  IDR 137.00  10.00  6.80%   
Ateliers Mecaniques' future price is the expected price of Ateliers Mecaniques instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Ateliers Mecaniques DIndonesie performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Ateliers Mecaniques Backtesting, Ateliers Mecaniques Valuation, Ateliers Mecaniques Correlation, Ateliers Mecaniques Hype Analysis, Ateliers Mecaniques Volatility, Ateliers Mecaniques History as well as Ateliers Mecaniques Performance.
  
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Ateliers Mecaniques Target Price Odds to finish over 119.86

The tendency of Ateliers Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above  119.86  in 90 days
 137.00 90 days 119.86 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ateliers Mecaniques to stay above  119.86  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Ateliers Mecaniques DIndonesie probability density function shows the probability of Ateliers Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ateliers Mecaniques price to stay between  119.86  and its current price of 137.0 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ateliers Mecaniques DIndonesie has a beta of -0.23. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Ateliers Mecaniques are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Ateliers Mecaniques DIndonesie is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Ateliers Mecaniques DIndonesie has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Ateliers Mecaniques Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Ateliers Mecaniques

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ateliers Mecaniques. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
135.33137.00138.67
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
116.56118.23150.70
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
135.61137.29138.96
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
140.46144.18147.90
Details

Ateliers Mecaniques Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ateliers Mecaniques is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ateliers Mecaniques' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ateliers Mecaniques DIndonesie, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ateliers Mecaniques within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.03
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.23
σ
Overall volatility
3.02
Ir
Information ratio -0.09

Ateliers Mecaniques Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ateliers Mecaniques for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ateliers Mecaniques can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ateliers Mecaniques generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 80.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Ateliers Mecaniques Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ateliers Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ateliers Mecaniques' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ateliers Mecaniques' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments6.8 B

Ateliers Mecaniques Technical Analysis

Ateliers Mecaniques' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ateliers Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ateliers Mecaniques DIndonesie. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ateliers Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Ateliers Mecaniques Predictive Forecast Models

Ateliers Mecaniques' time-series forecasting models is one of many Ateliers Mecaniques' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ateliers Mecaniques' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Ateliers Mecaniques

Checking the ongoing alerts about Ateliers Mecaniques for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ateliers Mecaniques help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ateliers Mecaniques generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 80.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Other Information on Investing in Ateliers Stock

Ateliers Mecaniques financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ateliers Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ateliers with respect to the benefits of owning Ateliers Mecaniques security.