Aston Martin (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 99.85
| AML Stock | 104.00 2.00 1.96% |
Aston |
Aston Martin Target Price Odds to finish below 99.85
The tendency of Aston Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 99.85 or more in 90 days |
| 104.00 | 90 days | 99.85 | about 12.17 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aston Martin to drop to 99.85 or more in 90 days from now is about 12.17 (This Aston Martin Lagonda probability density function shows the probability of Aston Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aston Martin Lagonda price to stay between 99.85 and its current price of 104.0 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.24 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Aston Martin Lagonda has a beta of -0.0071. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Aston Martin are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Aston Martin Lagonda is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Aston Martin Lagonda has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Aston Martin Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aston Martin
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aston Martin Lagonda. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aston Martin Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aston Martin is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aston Martin's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aston Martin Lagonda, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aston Martin within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.43 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.0071 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 22.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Aston Martin Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aston Martin for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aston Martin Lagonda can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aston Martin Lagonda generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aston Martin Lagonda has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.63 B. Net Loss for the year was (228.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 450.7 M. | |
| About 56.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Aston Martin Lagonda Global Sets New 1-Year Low - Heres What Happened - MarketBeat |
Aston Martin Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aston Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aston Martin's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aston Martin's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 748.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 392.4 M |
Aston Martin Technical Analysis
Aston Martin's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aston Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aston Martin Lagonda. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aston Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aston Martin Predictive Forecast Models
Aston Martin's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aston Martin's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aston Martin's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aston Martin Lagonda
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aston Martin for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aston Martin Lagonda help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aston Martin Lagonda generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aston Martin Lagonda has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.63 B. Net Loss for the year was (228.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 450.7 M. | |
| About 56.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Aston Martin Lagonda Global Sets New 1-Year Low - Heres What Happened - MarketBeat |
Other Information on Investing in Aston Stock
Aston Martin financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aston Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aston with respect to the benefits of owning Aston Martin security.