Applied Materials (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 160.85
| AP2 Stock | EUR 168.78 0.28 0.17% |
Applied |
Applied Materials Target Price Odds to finish below 160.85
The tendency of Applied Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 160.85 or more in 90 days |
| 168.78 | 90 days | 160.85 | about 6.67 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Applied Materials to drop to € 160.85 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.67 (This Applied Materials probability density function shows the probability of Applied Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Applied Materials price to stay between € 160.85 and its current price of €168.78 at the end of the 90-day period is about 25.31 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Applied Materials has a beta of -0.0596. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Applied Materials are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Applied Materials is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Applied Materials has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Applied Materials Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Applied Materials
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Applied Materials Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Applied Materials is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Applied Materials' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Applied Materials, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Applied Materials within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.71 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Applied Materials Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Applied Materials for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Applied Materials can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Applied Materials generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has €5.46 Billion in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Applied Materials Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Applied Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Applied Materials' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Applied Materials' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 860.3 M |
Applied Materials Technical Analysis
Applied Materials' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Applied Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Applied Materials. In general, you should focus on analyzing Applied Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Applied Materials Predictive Forecast Models
Applied Materials' time-series forecasting models is one of many Applied Materials' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Applied Materials' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Applied Materials
Checking the ongoing alerts about Applied Materials for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Applied Materials help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Applied Materials generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has €5.46 Billion in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Applied Stock
When determining whether Applied Materials is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Applied Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Applied Materials Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Applied Materials Stock:Check out Applied Materials Backtesting, Applied Materials Valuation, Applied Materials Correlation, Applied Materials Hype Analysis, Applied Materials Volatility, Applied Materials History as well as Applied Materials Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Applied Stock please use our How to Invest in Applied Materials guide.You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..