Arcbest Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 103.63
| ARCB Stock | USD 109.00 2.24 2.10% |
ArcBest |
ArcBest Corp Target Price Odds to finish below 103.63
The tendency of ArcBest Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 103.63 or more in 90 days |
| 109.00 | 90 days | 103.63 | about 31.49 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ArcBest Corp to drop to $ 103.63 or more in 90 days from now is about 31.49 (This ArcBest Corp probability density function shows the probability of ArcBest Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ArcBest Corp price to stay between $ 103.63 and its current price of $109.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 39.47 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.69 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, ArcBest Corp will likely underperform. Additionally ArcBest Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ArcBest Corp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ArcBest Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ArcBest Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ArcBest Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ArcBest Corp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ArcBest Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ArcBest Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ArcBest Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ArcBest Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.69 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
ArcBest Corp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ArcBest Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ArcBest Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ArcBest Corp had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: FMR LLCs Strategic Reduction in ArcBest Corp Holdings |
ArcBest Corp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ArcBest Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ArcBest Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ArcBest Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 330.1 M |
ArcBest Corp Technical Analysis
ArcBest Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ArcBest Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ArcBest Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing ArcBest Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ArcBest Corp Predictive Forecast Models
ArcBest Corp's time-series forecasting models is one of many ArcBest Corp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ArcBest Corp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ArcBest Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about ArcBest Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ArcBest Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ArcBest Corp had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: FMR LLCs Strategic Reduction in ArcBest Corp Holdings |
Check out ArcBest Corp Backtesting, ArcBest Corp Valuation, ArcBest Corp Correlation, ArcBest Corp Hype Analysis, ArcBest Corp Volatility, ArcBest Corp History as well as ArcBest Corp Performance. For information on how to trade ArcBest Stock refer to our How to Trade ArcBest Stock guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Cargo Ground Transportation space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ArcBest Corp. If investors know ArcBest will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ArcBest Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.98 | Dividend Share 0.48 | Earnings Share 7.96 | Revenue Per Share 180.569 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
The market value of ArcBest Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ArcBest that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ArcBest Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ArcBest Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ArcBest Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ArcBest Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ArcBest Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ArcBest Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ArcBest Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.