ArcBest Corp Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

ARCB Stock  USD 99.75  9.53  10.56%   
ArcBest Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ArcBest Corp stock prices and determine the direction of ArcBest Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of ArcBest Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of ArcBest Corp's stock price is about 67. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling ArcBest, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 67

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of ArcBest Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ArcBest Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using ArcBest Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ArcBest Corp from the perspective of ArcBest Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of ArcBest Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 92.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 206.30.

ArcBest Corp after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 99.75  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ArcBest Corp to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade ArcBest Stock refer to our How to Trade ArcBest Stock guide.

ArcBest Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine ArcBest price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ArcBest using various technical indicators. When you analyze ArcBest charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through ArcBest Corp price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

ArcBest Corp Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of ArcBest Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 92.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.38, mean absolute percentage error of 16.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 206.30.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ArcBest Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ArcBest Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ArcBest Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ArcBest Corp  ArcBest Corp Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

ArcBest Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ArcBest Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ArcBest Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 89.50 and 95.76, respectively. We have considered ArcBest Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
99.75
92.63
Expected Value
95.76
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ArcBest Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ArcBest Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.8875
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.3819
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0457
SAESum of the absolute errors206.2956
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as ArcBest Corp historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for ArcBest Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ArcBest Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ArcBest Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
96.6299.75102.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
89.78105.87109.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
74.8286.3697.89
Details

ArcBest Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of ArcBest Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ArcBest Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ArcBest Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

ArcBest Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting ArcBest Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ArcBest Corp's historical news coverage. ArcBest Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 96.62 and 102.88, respectively. We have considered ArcBest Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
99.75
99.75
After-hype Price
102.88
Upside
ArcBest Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ArcBest Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

ArcBest Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ArcBest Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ArcBest Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ArcBest Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.60 
3.13
  0.06 
  0.18 
24 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 24 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
99.75
99.75
0.00 
3,130  
Notes

ArcBest Corp Hype Timeline

ArcBest Corp is presently traded for 99.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.18. ArcBest is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.6%. %. The volatility of related hype on ArcBest Corp is about 1029.61%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 99.57. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.56. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. ArcBest Corp last dividend was issued on the 10th of February 2026. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 24 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ArcBest Corp to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade ArcBest Stock refer to our How to Trade ArcBest Stock guide.

ArcBest Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to ArcBest Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ArcBest Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how ArcBest Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ArcBest Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
WERNWerner Enterprises 0.00 0 per month 1.32  0.22  5.35 (2.75) 8.66 
ENREnergizer Holdings 0.26 9 per month 0.00 (0.02) 5.32 (4.01) 20.84 
DACDanaos(0.81)8 per month 0.76  0.17  2.47 (1.62) 5.60 
CDLRCadeler AS(2.05)9 per month 2.01  0.12  5.36 (3.41) 11.93 
KMTKennametal(0.44)9 per month 0.73  0.26  4.67 (1.67) 17.95 
PBIPitney Bowes(0.05)9 per month 0.00 (0.1) 2.65 (2.96) 10.54 
CMRECostamare(0.18)8 per month 1.11  0.32  3.28 (2.06) 8.57 
ROCKGibraltar Industries 0.72 9 per month 0.00 (0.1) 5.00 (4.60) 23.65 
ICFIICF International(0.44)8 per month 1.80  0.03  4.00 (2.89) 7.83 
HTZHertz Global Holdings(0.05)11 per month 3.38  0.01  7.63 (5.46) 43.57 

Other Forecasting Options for ArcBest Corp

For every potential investor in ArcBest, whether a beginner or expert, ArcBest Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ArcBest Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ArcBest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ArcBest Corp's price trends.

ArcBest Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ArcBest Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ArcBest Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ArcBest Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ArcBest Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ArcBest Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ArcBest Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ArcBest Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ArcBest Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ArcBest Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of ArcBest Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ArcBest Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arcbest stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for ArcBest Corp

The number of cover stories for ArcBest Corp depends on current market conditions and ArcBest Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ArcBest Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ArcBest Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

ArcBest Corp Short Properties

ArcBest Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when ArcBest Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ArcBest Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ArcBest Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ArcBest Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding22.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments124.2 M
When determining whether ArcBest Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of ArcBest Corp's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Arcbest Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Arcbest Corp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ArcBest Corp to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade ArcBest Stock refer to our How to Trade ArcBest Stock guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ArcBest Corp. If investors know ArcBest will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive ArcBest Corp assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Understanding ArcBest Corp requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects ArcBest's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what ArcBest Corp's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push ArcBest Corp's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that ArcBest Corp's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether ArcBest Corp represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, ArcBest Corp's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.