Arcos Dorados Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 8.04
| ARCO Stock | USD 8.43 0.03 0.36% |
Arcos |
Arcos Dorados Target Price Odds to finish below 8.04
The tendency of Arcos Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 8.04 or more in 90 days |
| 8.43 | 90 days | 8.04 | nearly 4.86 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arcos Dorados to drop to $ 8.04 or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.86 (This Arcos Dorados Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Arcos Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arcos Dorados Holdings price to stay between $ 8.04 and its current price of $8.43 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.65 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Arcos Dorados has a beta of 0.62. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Arcos Dorados average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Arcos Dorados Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Arcos Dorados Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Arcos Dorados Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Arcos Dorados
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arcos Dorados Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arcos Dorados' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arcos Dorados Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arcos Dorados is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arcos Dorados' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arcos Dorados Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arcos Dorados within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.62 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.49 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Arcos Dorados Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arcos Dorados for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arcos Dorados Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Arcos Dorados generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Arcos Dorados Holdings currently holds 1.71 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 7.4, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Arcos Dorados Holdings has a current ratio of 0.84, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Arcos Dorados' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Arcos Dorados has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc Q3 2024 Earnings Call Highlights Record Revenue and Strong ... |
Arcos Dorados Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arcos Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arcos Dorados' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arcos Dorados' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 210.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 246.8 M |
Arcos Dorados Technical Analysis
Arcos Dorados' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arcos Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arcos Dorados Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arcos Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arcos Dorados Predictive Forecast Models
Arcos Dorados' time-series forecasting models is one of many Arcos Dorados' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arcos Dorados' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Arcos Dorados Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Arcos Dorados for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arcos Dorados Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Arcos Dorados generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Arcos Dorados Holdings currently holds 1.71 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 7.4, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Arcos Dorados Holdings has a current ratio of 0.84, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Arcos Dorados' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Arcos Dorados has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc Q3 2024 Earnings Call Highlights Record Revenue and Strong ... |
Check out Arcos Dorados Backtesting, Arcos Dorados Valuation, Arcos Dorados Correlation, Arcos Dorados Hype Analysis, Arcos Dorados Volatility, Arcos Dorados History as well as Arcos Dorados Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arcos Dorados. If investors know Arcos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arcos Dorados listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.08) | Earnings Share 0.69 | Revenue Per Share 21.328 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.068 | Return On Assets 0.0693 |
The market value of Arcos Dorados Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arcos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arcos Dorados' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arcos Dorados' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arcos Dorados' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arcos Dorados' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arcos Dorados' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arcos Dorados is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arcos Dorados' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.