Argo Group (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.20
| ARGO Stock | 3.75 0.25 6.25% |
Argo |
Argo Group Target Price Odds to finish below 0.20
The tendency of Argo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 0.20 or more in 90 days |
| 3.75 | 90 days | 0.20 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Argo Group to drop to 0.20 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Argo Group Limited probability density function shows the probability of Argo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Argo Group Limited price to stay between 0.20 and its current price of 3.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.66 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Argo Group Limited has a beta of -0.0368. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Argo Group are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Argo Group Limited is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Argo Group Limited has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Argo Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Argo Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Argo Group Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Argo Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Argo Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Argo Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Argo Group Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Argo Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.55 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.75 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
Argo Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Argo Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Argo Group Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Argo Group Limited generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Argo Group Limited has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Argo Group Limited has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 3.05 M. Net Loss for the year was (14.43 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.85 M. | |
| Argo Group generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: SHAREHOLDER INVESTIGATION Halper Sadeh LLC Investigates INDT, ARGO, NUVA - Marketscreener.com |
Argo Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Argo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Argo Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Argo Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 42.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5 M |
Argo Group Technical Analysis
Argo Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Argo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Argo Group Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Argo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Argo Group Predictive Forecast Models
Argo Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Argo Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Argo Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Argo Group Limited
Checking the ongoing alerts about Argo Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Argo Group Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Argo Group Limited generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Argo Group Limited has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Argo Group Limited has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 3.05 M. Net Loss for the year was (14.43 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.85 M. | |
| Argo Group generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: SHAREHOLDER INVESTIGATION Halper Sadeh LLC Investigates INDT, ARGO, NUVA - Marketscreener.com |
Additional Tools for Argo Stock Analysis
When running Argo Group's price analysis, check to measure Argo Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Argo Group is operating at the current time. Most of Argo Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Argo Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Argo Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Argo Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.