PT Arkora (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 952.02
| ARKO Stock | 955.00 10.00 1.04% |
ARKO |
PT Arkora Target Price Odds to finish below 952.02
The tendency of ARKO Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 952.02 or more in 90 days |
| 955.00 | 90 days | 952.02 | about 20.05 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PT Arkora to drop to 952.02 or more in 90 days from now is about 20.05 (This PT Arkora Hydro probability density function shows the probability of ARKO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PT Arkora Hydro price to stay between 952.02 and its current price of 955.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.03 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon PT Arkora has a beta of 0.48. This suggests as returns on the market go up, PT Arkora average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding PT Arkora Hydro will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally PT Arkora Hydro has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. PT Arkora Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for PT Arkora
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PT Arkora Hydro. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PT Arkora Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PT Arkora is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PT Arkora's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PT Arkora Hydro, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PT Arkora within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.48 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 82.24 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
PT Arkora Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of PT Arkora for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for PT Arkora Hydro can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| PT Arkora Hydro generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
PT Arkora Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ARKO Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential PT Arkora's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PT Arkora's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 31.5 B | |
| Shares Float | 461.2 M |
PT Arkora Technical Analysis
PT Arkora's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ARKO Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PT Arkora Hydro. In general, you should focus on analyzing ARKO Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
PT Arkora Predictive Forecast Models
PT Arkora's time-series forecasting models is one of many PT Arkora's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PT Arkora's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about PT Arkora Hydro
Checking the ongoing alerts about PT Arkora for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for PT Arkora Hydro help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| PT Arkora Hydro generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in ARKO Stock
PT Arkora financial ratios help investors to determine whether ARKO Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ARKO with respect to the benefits of owning PT Arkora security.