Arcutis Biotherapeutics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 36.63
| ARQT Stock | USD 10.77 0.63 6.21% |
Arcutis |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Target Price Odds to finish over 36.63
The tendency of Arcutis Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 36.63 or more in 90 days |
| 10.77 | 90 days | 36.63 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arcutis Biotherapeutics to move over $ 36.63 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Arcutis Biotherapeutics probability density function shows the probability of Arcutis Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arcutis Biotherapeutics price to stay between its current price of $ 10.77 and $ 36.63 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.92 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Arcutis Biotherapeutics has a beta of 0.0597. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Arcutis Biotherapeutics average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Arcutis Biotherapeutics will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Arcutis Biotherapeutics has an alpha of 0.0536, implying that it can generate a 0.0536 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Arcutis Biotherapeutics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Arcutis Biotherapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arcutis Biotherapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Arcutis Biotherapeutics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arcutis Biotherapeutics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arcutis Biotherapeutics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arcutis Biotherapeutics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arcutis Biotherapeutics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.78 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arcutis Biotherapeutics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arcutis Biotherapeutics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Arcutis Biotherapeutics had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Arcutis Biotherapeutics has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 59.61 M. Net Loss for the year was (262.14 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.93 M. | |
| Arcutis Biotherapeutics currently holds about 282.17 M in cash with (247.06 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.47. | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arcutis Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arcutis Biotherapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arcutis Biotherapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 271.9 M |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Technical Analysis
Arcutis Biotherapeutics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arcutis Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arcutis Biotherapeutics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arcutis Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Predictive Forecast Models
Arcutis Biotherapeutics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Arcutis Biotherapeutics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arcutis Biotherapeutics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Arcutis Biotherapeutics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Arcutis Biotherapeutics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arcutis Biotherapeutics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Arcutis Biotherapeutics had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Arcutis Biotherapeutics has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 59.61 M. Net Loss for the year was (262.14 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.93 M. | |
| Arcutis Biotherapeutics currently holds about 282.17 M in cash with (247.06 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.47. | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Tools for Arcutis Stock Analysis
When running Arcutis Biotherapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Arcutis Biotherapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arcutis Biotherapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Arcutis Biotherapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arcutis Biotherapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arcutis Biotherapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arcutis Biotherapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.