Ashland Global Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 78.14
| ASH Stock | USD 79.77 0.72 0.91% |
Ashland |
Ashland Global Target Price Odds to finish below 78.14
The tendency of Ashland Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 78.14 or more in 90 days |
| 79.77 | 90 days | 78.14 | roughly 2.87 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ashland Global to drop to $ 78.14 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.87 (This Ashland Global Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Ashland Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ashland Global Holdings price to stay between $ 78.14 and its current price of $79.77 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.64 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.09 . This suggests Ashland Global Holdings market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Ashland Global is expected to follow. Additionally Ashland Global Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Ashland Global Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Ashland Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ashland Global Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ashland Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ashland Global Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ashland Global is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ashland Global's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ashland Global Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ashland Global within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.26 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Ashland Global Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ashland Global for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ashland Global Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ashland Global generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ashland Global has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Active Ingredients Business Research Report 2024-2030 Market to Grow by 3.2 Billion - Rising Demand for Natural and Organic Products Expands Opportunities for Plant-Based Active Ingredients - ResearchAndMarkets.com |
Ashland Global Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ashland Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ashland Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ashland Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 50 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 373 M |
Ashland Global Technical Analysis
Ashland Global's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ashland Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ashland Global Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ashland Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ashland Global Predictive Forecast Models
Ashland Global's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ashland Global's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ashland Global's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ashland Global Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ashland Global for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ashland Global Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ashland Global generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ashland Global has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Active Ingredients Business Research Report 2024-2030 Market to Grow by 3.2 Billion - Rising Demand for Natural and Organic Products Expands Opportunities for Plant-Based Active Ingredients - ResearchAndMarkets.com |
Check out Ashland Global Backtesting, Ashland Global Valuation, Ashland Global Correlation, Ashland Global Hype Analysis, Ashland Global Volatility, Ashland Global History as well as Ashland Global Performance. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Specialty Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ashland Global. If investors know Ashland will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ashland Global listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.88) | Dividend Share 1.58 | Earnings Share 3.95 | Revenue Per Share 42.26 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.01 |
The market value of Ashland Global Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ashland that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ashland Global's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ashland Global's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ashland Global's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ashland Global's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ashland Global's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ashland Global is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ashland Global's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.