Ashland Global Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ASH Stock | USD 77.68 1.47 1.93% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ashland Global Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 75.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.57. Ashland Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ashland Global's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Ashland |
Ashland Global Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Ashland Global's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-09-30 | Previous Quarter 399 M | Current Value 300 M | Quarterly Volatility 352.4 M |
Ashland Global Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ashland Global Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 75.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.25, mean absolute percentage error of 2.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ashland Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ashland Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ashland Global Stock Forecast Pattern
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Ashland Global Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ashland Global's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ashland Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 74.33 and 77.35, respectively. We have considered Ashland Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ashland Global stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ashland Global stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.7841 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2512 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 77.5715 |
Predictive Modules for Ashland Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ashland Global Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ashland Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Ashland Global
For every potential investor in Ashland, whether a beginner or expert, Ashland Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ashland Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ashland. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ashland Global's price trends.Ashland Global Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ashland Global stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ashland Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ashland Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ashland Global Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ashland Global's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ashland Global's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Ashland Global Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ashland Global stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ashland Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ashland Global stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ashland Global Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ashland Global Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ashland Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ashland Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ashland stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Variance | 2.23 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether Ashland Global Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ashland Global's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ashland Global Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ashland Global Holdings Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ashland Global to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Specialty Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ashland Global. If investors know Ashland will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ashland Global listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.88) | Dividend Share 1.58 | Earnings Share 3.94 | Revenue Per Share 42.26 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.01 |
The market value of Ashland Global Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ashland that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ashland Global's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ashland Global's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ashland Global's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ashland Global's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ashland Global's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ashland Global is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ashland Global's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.