ASML Holding (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 628.52
| ASME Stock | EUR 651.90 3.80 0.59% |
ASML |
ASML Holding Target Price Odds to finish below 628.52
The tendency of ASML Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 628.52 or more in 90 days |
| 651.90 | 90 days | 628.52 | about 12.45 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ASML Holding to drop to € 628.52 or more in 90 days from now is about 12.45 (This ASML Holding NV probability density function shows the probability of ASML Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ASML Holding NV price to stay between € 628.52 and its current price of €651.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.63 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.45 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, ASML Holding will likely underperform. Additionally ASML Holding NV has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ASML Holding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ASML Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASML Holding NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ASML Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ASML Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ASML Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ASML Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ASML Holding NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ASML Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.43 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 61.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
ASML Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ASML Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ASML Holding NV can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ASML Holding NV generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ASML Holding NV has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 56.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
ASML Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ASML Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ASML Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ASML Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 394.6 M |
ASML Holding Technical Analysis
ASML Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ASML Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ASML Holding NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing ASML Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ASML Holding Predictive Forecast Models
ASML Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many ASML Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ASML Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ASML Holding NV
Checking the ongoing alerts about ASML Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ASML Holding NV help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ASML Holding NV generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ASML Holding NV has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 56.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in ASML Stock
When determining whether ASML Holding NV is a strong investment it is important to analyze ASML Holding's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact ASML Holding's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding ASML Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out ASML Holding Backtesting, ASML Holding Valuation, ASML Holding Correlation, ASML Holding Hype Analysis, ASML Holding Volatility, ASML Holding History as well as ASML Holding Performance. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.