ASML Holding (Netherlands) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 583.98
| ASML Stock | EUR 640.00 12.00 1.84% |
ASML |
ASML Holding Target Price Odds to finish over 583.98
The tendency of ASML Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above € 583.98 in 90 days |
| 640.00 | 90 days | 583.98 | roughly 97.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ASML Holding to stay above € 583.98 in 90 days from now is roughly 97.0 (This ASML Holding NV probability density function shows the probability of ASML Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ASML Holding NV price to stay between € 583.98 and its current price of €640.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.23 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.11 . This suggests ASML Holding NV market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, ASML Holding is expected to follow. Additionally ASML Holding NV has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ASML Holding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ASML Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASML Holding NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ASML Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ASML Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ASML Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ASML Holding NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ASML Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.39 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 61.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
ASML Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ASML Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ASML Holding NV can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ASML Holding NV generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ASML Holding NV has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 61.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
ASML Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ASML Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ASML Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ASML Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 403.1 M |
ASML Holding Technical Analysis
ASML Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ASML Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ASML Holding NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing ASML Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ASML Holding Predictive Forecast Models
ASML Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many ASML Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ASML Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ASML Holding NV
Checking the ongoing alerts about ASML Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ASML Holding NV help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ASML Holding NV generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ASML Holding NV has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 61.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Tools for ASML Stock Analysis
When running ASML Holding's price analysis, check to measure ASML Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ASML Holding is operating at the current time. Most of ASML Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ASML Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ASML Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ASML Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.