ATMA Participaes (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.19
| ATMP3 Stock | BRL 1.30 0.06 4.41% |
ATMA |
ATMA Participaes Target Price Odds to finish below 1.19
The tendency of ATMA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 1.19 or more in 90 days |
| 1.30 | 90 days | 1.19 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ATMA Participaes to drop to R$ 1.19 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This ATMA Participaes SA probability density function shows the probability of ATMA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ATMA Participaes price to stay between R$ 1.19 and its current price of R$1.3 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.44 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ATMA Participaes SA has a beta of -0.68. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding ATMA Participaes are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ATMA Participaes SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ATMA Participaes SA has an alpha of 0.0179, implying that it can generate a 0.0179 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ATMA Participaes Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ATMA Participaes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ATMA Participaes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ATMA Participaes Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ATMA Participaes is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ATMA Participaes' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ATMA Participaes SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ATMA Participaes within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.68 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
ATMA Participaes Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ATMA Participaes for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ATMA Participaes can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ATMA Participaes generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ATMA Participaes may become a speculative penny stock | |
| ATMA Participaes has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| ATMA Participaes has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| ATMA Participaes SA has accumulated 200.39 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 2.31, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. ATMA Participaes has a current ratio of 0.4, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist ATMA Participaes until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, ATMA Participaes' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like ATMA Participaes sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for ATMA to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about ATMA Participaes' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 1.05 B. Net Loss for the year was (136.28 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 89.37 M. | |
| About 74.0% of ATMA Participaes shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
ATMA Participaes Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ATMA Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ATMA Participaes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ATMA Participaes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 26.9 M |
ATMA Participaes Technical Analysis
ATMA Participaes' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ATMA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ATMA Participaes SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing ATMA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ATMA Participaes Predictive Forecast Models
ATMA Participaes' time-series forecasting models is one of many ATMA Participaes' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ATMA Participaes' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ATMA Participaes
Checking the ongoing alerts about ATMA Participaes for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ATMA Participaes help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ATMA Participaes generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ATMA Participaes may become a speculative penny stock | |
| ATMA Participaes has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| ATMA Participaes has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| ATMA Participaes SA has accumulated 200.39 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 2.31, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. ATMA Participaes has a current ratio of 0.4, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist ATMA Participaes until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, ATMA Participaes' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like ATMA Participaes sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for ATMA to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about ATMA Participaes' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 1.05 B. Net Loss for the year was (136.28 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 89.37 M. | |
| About 74.0% of ATMA Participaes shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Tools for ATMA Stock Analysis
When running ATMA Participaes' price analysis, check to measure ATMA Participaes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ATMA Participaes is operating at the current time. Most of ATMA Participaes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ATMA Participaes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ATMA Participaes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ATMA Participaes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.