Aurelia Metals Limited Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 0.15
| AUMTF Stock | USD 0.15 0.00 0.00% |
Aurelia |
Aurelia Metals Target Price Odds to finish over 0.15
The tendency of Aurelia Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 0.15 | 90 days | 0.15 | about 50.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aurelia Metals to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 50.0 (This Aurelia Metals Limited probability density function shows the probability of Aurelia Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Aurelia Metals has a beta of 0.0755. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aurelia Metals average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aurelia Metals Limited will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aurelia Metals Limited has an alpha of 0.0318, implying that it can generate a 0.0318 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aurelia Metals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aurelia Metals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurelia Metals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aurelia Metals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aurelia Metals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aurelia Metals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aurelia Metals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aurelia Metals Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aurelia Metals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Aurelia Metals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aurelia Metals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aurelia Metals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aurelia Metals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Aurelia Metals had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 438.81 M. Net Loss for the year was (81.69 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 22.45 M. | |
| About 22.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Aurelia Metals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aurelia Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aurelia Metals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aurelia Metals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B |
Aurelia Metals Technical Analysis
Aurelia Metals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aurelia Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aurelia Metals Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aurelia Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aurelia Metals Predictive Forecast Models
Aurelia Metals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Aurelia Metals' pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aurelia Metals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aurelia Metals
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aurelia Metals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aurelia Metals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aurelia Metals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Aurelia Metals had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 438.81 M. Net Loss for the year was (81.69 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 22.45 M. | |
| About 22.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Aurelia Pink Sheet
Aurelia Metals financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aurelia Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aurelia with respect to the benefits of owning Aurelia Metals security.