Air Lease (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 33.88
| AVLA Stock | EUR 48.40 1.00 2.02% |
Air |
Air Lease Target Price Odds to finish below 33.88
The tendency of Air Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 33.88 or more in 90 days |
| 48.40 | 90 days | 33.88 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Air Lease to drop to € 33.88 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Air Lease probability density function shows the probability of Air Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Air Lease price to stay between € 33.88 and its current price of €48.4 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Air Lease has a beta of 0.0296. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Air Lease average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Air Lease will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Air Lease has an alpha of 0.26, implying that it can generate a 0.26 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Air Lease Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Air Lease
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Air Lease. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Air Lease Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Air Lease is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Air Lease's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Air Lease, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Air Lease within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.26 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Air Lease Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Air Lease for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Air Lease can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Air Lease has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 2.32 B. Net Loss for the year was (97.02 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.35 B. | |
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Air Lease Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Air Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Air Lease's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Air Lease's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 110.9 M |
Air Lease Technical Analysis
Air Lease's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Air Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Air Lease. In general, you should focus on analyzing Air Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Air Lease Predictive Forecast Models
Air Lease's time-series forecasting models is one of many Air Lease's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Air Lease's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Air Lease
Checking the ongoing alerts about Air Lease for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Air Lease help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Air Lease has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 2.32 B. Net Loss for the year was (97.02 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.35 B. | |
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Air Stock
When determining whether Air Lease is a strong investment it is important to analyze Air Lease's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Air Lease's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Air Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Air Lease Backtesting, Air Lease Valuation, Air Lease Correlation, Air Lease Hype Analysis, Air Lease Volatility, Air Lease History as well as Air Lease Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Air Stock please use our How to Invest in Air Lease guide.You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.