Avalon Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.18
| AWX Stock | USD 3.15 0.03 0.94% |
Avalon |
Avalon Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 3.18
The tendency of Avalon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 3.18 or more in 90 days |
| 3.15 | 90 days | 3.18 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Avalon Holdings to move over $ 3.18 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Avalon Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Avalon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Avalon Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 3.15 and $ 3.18 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Avalon Holdings has a beta of 0.19. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Avalon Holdings average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Avalon Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Avalon Holdings has an alpha of 0.3817, implying that it can generate a 0.38 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Avalon Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Avalon Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avalon Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avalon Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Avalon Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Avalon Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Avalon Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Avalon Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Avalon Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.38 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Avalon Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Avalon Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Avalon Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Avalon Holdings had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Avalon Holdings has 35.02 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.58, which is OK given its current industry classification. Avalon Holdings has a current ratio of 0.77, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Avalon to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 80.52 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (1.77 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 13.96 M. | |
| Avalon Holdings has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 38.0% of Avalon Holdings shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: AVALON HOLDINGS CORPORATION ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER RESULTS - GuruFocus.com |
Avalon Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Avalon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Avalon Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avalon Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 M |
Avalon Holdings Technical Analysis
Avalon Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Avalon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Avalon Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Avalon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Avalon Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Avalon Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Avalon Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Avalon Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Avalon Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Avalon Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Avalon Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Avalon Holdings had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Avalon Holdings has 35.02 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.58, which is OK given its current industry classification. Avalon Holdings has a current ratio of 0.77, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Avalon to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 80.52 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (1.77 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 13.96 M. | |
| Avalon Holdings has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 38.0% of Avalon Holdings shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: AVALON HOLDINGS CORPORATION ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER RESULTS - GuruFocus.com |
Additional Tools for Avalon Stock Analysis
When running Avalon Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Avalon Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avalon Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Avalon Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avalon Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avalon Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avalon Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.