Alibaba Group (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 20.61
| BABA34 Stock | BRL 17.25 0.45 2.54% |
Alibaba |
Alibaba Group Target Price Odds to finish over 20.61
The tendency of Alibaba Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over R$ 20.61 or more in 90 days |
| 17.25 | 90 days | 20.61 | about 21.32 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alibaba Group to move over R$ 20.61 or more in 90 days from now is about 21.32 (This Alibaba Group Holding probability density function shows the probability of Alibaba Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alibaba Group Holding price to stay between its current price of R$ 17.25 and R$ 20.61 at the end of the 90-day period is about 57.62 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alibaba Group has a beta of 0.18 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Alibaba Group average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alibaba Group Holding will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alibaba Group Holding has an alpha of 0.0852, implying that it can generate a 0.0852 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alibaba Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alibaba Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alibaba Group Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alibaba Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alibaba Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alibaba Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alibaba Group Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alibaba Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.10 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0051 |
Alibaba Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alibaba Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alibaba Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alibaba Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 21.4 B |
Alibaba Group Technical Analysis
Alibaba Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alibaba Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alibaba Group Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alibaba Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alibaba Group Predictive Forecast Models
Alibaba Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alibaba Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alibaba Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Alibaba Group in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Alibaba Group's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Alibaba Group options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Alibaba Stock
When determining whether Alibaba Group Holding offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Alibaba Group's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Alibaba Group Holding Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Alibaba Group Holding Stock:Check out Alibaba Group Backtesting, Alibaba Group Valuation, Alibaba Group Correlation, Alibaba Group Hype Analysis, Alibaba Group Volatility, Alibaba Group History as well as Alibaba Group Performance. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.