International Consolidated Airlines Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 0.03
| BABWF Stock | USD 3.20 0.29 9.97% |
International |
International Consolidated Target Price Odds to finish below 0.03
The tendency of International Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.03 or more in 90 days |
| 3.20 | 90 days | 0.03 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of International Consolidated to drop to $ 0.03 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This International Consolidated Airlines probability density function shows the probability of International Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of International Consolidated price to stay between $ 0.03 and its current price of $3.2 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the pink sheet has the beta coefficient of 1.99 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, International Consolidated will likely underperform. Additionally International Consolidated Airlines has an alpha of 0.5033, implying that it can generate a 0.5 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). International Consolidated Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for International Consolidated
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as International Consolidated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of International Consolidated's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
International Consolidated Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. International Consolidated is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the International Consolidated's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold International Consolidated Airlines, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of International Consolidated within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.50 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.99 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
International Consolidated Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of International Consolidated for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for International Consolidated can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| International Consolidated is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| International Consolidated appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| International Consolidated Airlines has accumulated 8.97 B in total debt. International Consolidated has a current ratio of 0.81, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist International Consolidated until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, International Consolidated's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like International Consolidated sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for International to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about International Consolidated's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 8.46 B. Net Loss for the year was (2.93 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 164 M. | |
| International Consolidated Airlines has accumulated about 9.19 B in cash with (141 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.85. | |
| Roughly 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
International Consolidated Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of International Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential International Consolidated's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. International Consolidated's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5 B |
International Consolidated Technical Analysis
International Consolidated's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. International Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of International Consolidated Airlines. In general, you should focus on analyzing International Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
International Consolidated Predictive Forecast Models
International Consolidated's time-series forecasting models is one of many International Consolidated's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary International Consolidated's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about International Consolidated
Checking the ongoing alerts about International Consolidated for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for International Consolidated help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| International Consolidated is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| International Consolidated appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| International Consolidated Airlines has accumulated 8.97 B in total debt. International Consolidated has a current ratio of 0.81, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist International Consolidated until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, International Consolidated's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like International Consolidated sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for International to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about International Consolidated's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 8.46 B. Net Loss for the year was (2.93 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 164 M. | |
| International Consolidated Airlines has accumulated about 9.19 B in cash with (141 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.85. | |
| Roughly 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in International Pink Sheet
International Consolidated financial ratios help investors to determine whether International Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in International with respect to the benefits of owning International Consolidated security.