Boc Aviation Limited Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 7.32
| BCVVF Stock | USD 7.35 0.49 6.25% |
BOC |
BOC Aviation Target Price Odds to finish below 7.32
The tendency of BOC Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 7.32 or more in 90 days |
| 7.35 | 90 days | 7.32 | about 8.11 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BOC Aviation to drop to $ 7.32 or more in 90 days from now is about 8.11 (This BOC Aviation Limited probability density function shows the probability of BOC Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BOC Aviation Limited price to stay between $ 7.32 and its current price of $7.35 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon BOC Aviation Limited has a beta of -0.0415 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding BOC Aviation are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, BOC Aviation Limited is likely to outperform the market. Additionally BOC Aviation Limited has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. BOC Aviation Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for BOC Aviation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BOC Aviation Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BOC Aviation's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BOC Aviation Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BOC Aviation is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BOC Aviation's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BOC Aviation Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BOC Aviation within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.26 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
BOC Aviation Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of BOC Aviation for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for BOC Aviation Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| BOC Aviation Limited generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| BOC Aviation Limited has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| BOC Aviation Limited has accumulated 14.87 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 3.3, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. BOC Aviation Limited has a current ratio of 0.24, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist BOC Aviation until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, BOC Aviation's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like BOC Aviation Limited sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for BOC to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about BOC Aviation's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 70.0% of BOC Aviation shares are held by company insiders |
BOC Aviation Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of BOC Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential BOC Aviation's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BOC Aviation's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 694 M |
BOC Aviation Technical Analysis
BOC Aviation's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. BOC Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BOC Aviation Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing BOC Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
BOC Aviation Predictive Forecast Models
BOC Aviation's time-series forecasting models is one of many BOC Aviation's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary BOC Aviation's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about BOC Aviation Limited
Checking the ongoing alerts about BOC Aviation for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for BOC Aviation Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| BOC Aviation Limited generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| BOC Aviation Limited has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| BOC Aviation Limited has accumulated 14.87 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 3.3, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. BOC Aviation Limited has a current ratio of 0.24, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist BOC Aviation until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, BOC Aviation's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like BOC Aviation Limited sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for BOC to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about BOC Aviation's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 70.0% of BOC Aviation shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in BOC Pink Sheet
BOC Aviation financial ratios help investors to determine whether BOC Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in BOC with respect to the benefits of owning BOC Aviation security.