Bank Danamon (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2529.5
| BDMN Stock | IDR 2,550 20.00 0.78% |
Bank |
Bank Danamon Target Price Odds to finish below 2529.5
The tendency of Bank Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 2,530 or more in 90 days |
| 2,550 | 90 days | 2,530 | about 8.38 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bank Danamon to drop to 2,530 or more in 90 days from now is about 8.38 (This Bank Danamon Indonesia probability density function shows the probability of Bank Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bank Danamon Indonesia price to stay between 2,530 and its current price of 2550.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.68 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Bank Danamon Indonesia has a beta of -0.19 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Bank Danamon are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Bank Danamon Indonesia is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Bank Danamon Indonesia has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Bank Danamon Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Bank Danamon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank Danamon Indonesia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bank Danamon Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bank Danamon is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bank Danamon's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bank Danamon Indonesia, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bank Danamon within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 48.52 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.3 |
Bank Danamon Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bank Danamon for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bank Danamon Indonesia can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Bank Danamon generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 95.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Bank Danamon Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bank Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bank Danamon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bank Danamon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9.8 B |
Bank Danamon Technical Analysis
Bank Danamon's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bank Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bank Danamon Indonesia. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bank Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bank Danamon Predictive Forecast Models
Bank Danamon's time-series forecasting models is one of many Bank Danamon's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bank Danamon's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Bank Danamon Indonesia
Checking the ongoing alerts about Bank Danamon for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bank Danamon Indonesia help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Bank Danamon generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 95.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Bank Stock
Bank Danamon financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bank Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bank with respect to the benefits of owning Bank Danamon security.