BHP Group (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 49.27
| BHP Stock | EUR 49.30 0.90 1.86% |
BHP |
BHP Group Target Price Odds to finish below 49.27
The tendency of BHP Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 49.27 or more in 90 days |
| 49.30 | 90 days | 49.27 | about 37.08 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BHP Group to drop to € 49.27 or more in 90 days from now is about 37.08 (This BHP Group Limited probability density function shows the probability of BHP Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BHP Group Limited price to stay between € 49.27 and its current price of €49.3 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon BHP Group has a beta of 0.37 suggesting as returns on the market go up, BHP Group average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding BHP Group Limited will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally BHP Group Limited has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. BHP Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for BHP Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BHP Group Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.BHP Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BHP Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BHP Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BHP Group Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BHP Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.37 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
BHP Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of BHP Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential BHP Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BHP Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.1 B |
BHP Group Technical Analysis
BHP Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. BHP Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BHP Group Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing BHP Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
BHP Group Predictive Forecast Models
BHP Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many BHP Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary BHP Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards BHP Group in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, BHP Group's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from BHP Group options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in BHP Stock
When determining whether BHP Group Limited is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if BHP Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Bhp Group Limited Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Bhp Group Limited Stock:Check out BHP Group Backtesting, BHP Group Valuation, BHP Group Correlation, BHP Group Hype Analysis, BHP Group Volatility, BHP Group History as well as BHP Group Performance. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.