Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 77.19
| BIV Etf | USD 75.36 0.05 0.07% |
Vanguard |
Vanguard Intermediate Target Price Odds to finish below 77.19
The tendency of Vanguard Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 77.19 after 90 days |
| 75.36 | 90 days | 77.19 | about 64.97 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard Intermediate to stay under $ 77.19 after 90 days from now is about 64.97 (This Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vanguard Intermediate price to stay between its current price of $ 75.36 and $ 77.19 at the end of the 90-day period is about 56.92 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Vanguard Intermediate has a beta of 0.0455 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Vanguard Intermediate average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Vanguard Intermediate Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vanguard Intermediate
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard Intermediate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vanguard Intermediate Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vanguard Intermediate is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vanguard Intermediate's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vanguard Intermediate within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.49 |
Vanguard Intermediate Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vanguard Intermediate for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vanguard Intermediate can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vanguard Intermediate generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -2.0% | |
| Vanguard Intermediate holds about 10.08% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
Vanguard Intermediate Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vanguard Etf often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vanguard Intermediate's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vanguard Intermediate's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Vanguard Intermediate Technical Analysis
Vanguard Intermediate's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vanguard Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vanguard Intermediate Term Bond. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vanguard Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vanguard Intermediate Predictive Forecast Models
Vanguard Intermediate's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vanguard Intermediate's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vanguard Intermediate's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vanguard Intermediate
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vanguard Intermediate for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vanguard Intermediate help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vanguard Intermediate generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -2.0% | |
| Vanguard Intermediate holds about 10.08% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
Check out Vanguard Intermediate Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Vanguard Intermediate Correlation, Vanguard Intermediate Hype Analysis, Vanguard Intermediate Volatility, Vanguard Intermediate History as well as Vanguard Intermediate Performance. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
The market value of Vanguard Intermediate is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vanguard that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vanguard Intermediate's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vanguard Intermediate's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vanguard Intermediate's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vanguard Intermediate's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vanguard Intermediate's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vanguard Intermediate is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vanguard Intermediate's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.