Carnival Plc (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 85.7

C1CL34 Stock  BRL 160.60  1.72  1.08%   
Carnival Plc's future price is the expected price of Carnival Plc instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Carnival plc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Carnival Plc Backtesting, Carnival Plc Valuation, Carnival Plc Correlation, Carnival Plc Hype Analysis, Carnival Plc Volatility, Carnival Plc History as well as Carnival Plc Performance.
  
Please specify Carnival Plc's target price for which you would like Carnival Plc odds to be computed.

Carnival Plc Target Price Odds to finish over 85.7

The tendency of Carnival Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above R$ 85.70  in 90 days
 160.60 90 days 85.70 
more than 94.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Carnival Plc to stay above R$ 85.70  in 90 days from now is more than 94.0 (This Carnival plc probability density function shows the probability of Carnival Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Carnival plc price to stay between R$ 85.70  and its current price of R$160.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 91.82 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Carnival plc has a beta of -0.22 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Carnival Plc are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Carnival plc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Carnival plc has an alpha of 0.8887, implying that it can generate a 0.89 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Carnival Plc Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Carnival Plc

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carnival plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
156.20158.88161.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
142.99166.44169.12
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
161.96164.65167.33
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
143.49149.58155.68
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Carnival Plc. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Carnival Plc's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Carnival Plc's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Carnival plc.

Carnival Plc Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Carnival Plc is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Carnival Plc's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Carnival plc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Carnival Plc within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.89
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.22
σ
Overall volatility
20.91
Ir
Information ratio 0.27

Carnival Plc Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Carnival Plc for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Carnival plc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Carnival plc has accumulated 28.51 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 4.21, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Carnival plc has a current ratio of 0.64, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Carnival Plc until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Carnival Plc's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Carnival plc sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Carnival to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Carnival Plc's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the revenue of 1.91 B. Net Loss for the year was (9.5 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.81 B.
Carnival plc has accumulated about 7.07 B in cash with (4.11 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.44.

Carnival Plc Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Carnival Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Carnival Plc's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carnival Plc's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.1 B

Carnival Plc Technical Analysis

Carnival Plc's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Carnival Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Carnival plc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Carnival Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Carnival Plc Predictive Forecast Models

Carnival Plc's time-series forecasting models is one of many Carnival Plc's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Carnival Plc's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Carnival plc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Carnival Plc for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Carnival plc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Carnival plc has accumulated 28.51 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 4.21, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Carnival plc has a current ratio of 0.64, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Carnival Plc until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Carnival Plc's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Carnival plc sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Carnival to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Carnival Plc's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the revenue of 1.91 B. Net Loss for the year was (9.5 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.81 B.
Carnival plc has accumulated about 7.07 B in cash with (4.11 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.44.

Other Information on Investing in Carnival Stock

Carnival Plc financial ratios help investors to determine whether Carnival Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Carnival with respect to the benefits of owning Carnival Plc security.