Chipotle Mexican (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 18.20
| C1MG34 Stock | 18.20 0.24 1.30% |
Chipotle |
Chipotle Mexican Target Price Odds to finish over 18.20
The tendency of Chipotle Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 18.20 | 90 days | 18.20 | roughly 2.16 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Chipotle Mexican to move above the current price in 90 days from now is roughly 2.16 (This Chipotle Mexican Grill probability density function shows the probability of Chipotle Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Chipotle Mexican Grill has a beta of -0.41 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Chipotle Mexican are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Chipotle Mexican Grill is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Chipotle Mexican Grill has an alpha of 0.3093, implying that it can generate a 0.31 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Chipotle Mexican Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Chipotle Mexican
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chipotle Mexican Grill. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Chipotle Mexican. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Chipotle Mexican's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Chipotle Mexican's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Chipotle Mexican Grill.Chipotle Mexican Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Chipotle Mexican is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Chipotle Mexican's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Chipotle Mexican Grill, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Chipotle Mexican within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.31 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Chipotle Mexican Technical Analysis
Chipotle Mexican's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Chipotle Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Chipotle Mexican Grill. In general, you should focus on analyzing Chipotle Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Chipotle Mexican Predictive Forecast Models
Chipotle Mexican's time-series forecasting models is one of many Chipotle Mexican's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Chipotle Mexican's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Chipotle Mexican in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Chipotle Mexican's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Chipotle Mexican options trading.