Cathay General Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 39.78
| CATY Stock | USD 52.01 0.30 0.57% |
Cathay |
Cathay General Target Price Odds to finish below 39.78
The tendency of Cathay Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 39.78 or more in 90 days |
| 52.01 | 90 days | 39.78 | about 7.02 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cathay General to drop to $ 39.78 or more in 90 days from now is about 7.02 (This Cathay General Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Cathay Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cathay General Bancorp price to stay between $ 39.78 and its current price of $52.01 at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.52 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.18 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Cathay General will likely underperform. Additionally Cathay General Bancorp has an alpha of 0.0613, implying that it can generate a 0.0613 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Cathay General Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Cathay General
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cathay General Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cathay General's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cathay General Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cathay General is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cathay General's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cathay General Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cathay General within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.85 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Cathay General Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cathay General for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cathay General Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 76.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Super Micro pays off, ends loan agreements with BofA, Cathay Bank |
Cathay General Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cathay Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cathay General's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cathay General's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 72.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 828.8 M |
Cathay General Technical Analysis
Cathay General's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cathay Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cathay General Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cathay Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cathay General Predictive Forecast Models
Cathay General's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cathay General's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cathay General's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cathay General Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cathay General for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cathay General Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 76.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Super Micro pays off, ends loan agreements with BofA, Cathay Bank |
Additional Tools for Cathay Stock Analysis
When running Cathay General's price analysis, check to measure Cathay General's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cathay General is operating at the current time. Most of Cathay General's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cathay General's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cathay General's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cathay General to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.