Carnival Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 25.26
| CCL Stock | USD 25.35 0.27 1.08% |
Carnival |
Carnival Target Price Odds to finish below 25.26
The tendency of Carnival Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 25.26 or more in 90 days |
| 25.35 | 90 days | 25.26 | roughly 97.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Carnival to drop to $ 25.26 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 97.0 (This Carnival probability density function shows the probability of Carnival Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Carnival price to stay between $ 25.26 and its current price of $25.35 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.84 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Carnival will likely underperform. Additionally Carnival has an alpha of 0.5844, implying that it can generate a 0.58 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Carnival Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Carnival
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carnival. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carnival's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Carnival Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Carnival is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Carnival's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Carnival, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Carnival within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.58 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.84 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.97 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.28 |
Carnival Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Carnival for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Carnival can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Carnival has 31.89 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 4.21, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Carnival has a current ratio of 0.64, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Carnival to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 21.59 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (74 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 10.7 B. | |
| About 63.0% of Carnival shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Hilton Fuels Growth in India With Strategic Licensing Agreement |
Carnival Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Carnival Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Carnival's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carnival's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.4 B |
Carnival Technical Analysis
Carnival's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Carnival Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Carnival. In general, you should focus on analyzing Carnival Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Carnival Predictive Forecast Models
Carnival's time-series forecasting models is one of many Carnival's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Carnival's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Carnival
Checking the ongoing alerts about Carnival for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Carnival help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Carnival has 31.89 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 4.21, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Carnival has a current ratio of 0.64, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Carnival to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 21.59 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (74 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 10.7 B. | |
| About 63.0% of Carnival shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Hilton Fuels Growth in India With Strategic Licensing Agreement |
Check out Carnival Backtesting, Carnival Valuation, Carnival Correlation, Carnival Hype Analysis, Carnival Volatility, Carnival History as well as Carnival Performance. For more information on how to buy Carnival Stock please use our How to buy in Carnival Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carnival. If investors know Carnival will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carnival listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.599 | Earnings Share 1.17 | Revenue Per Share 19.351 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.152 | Return On Assets 0.0425 |
The market value of Carnival is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carnival that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carnival's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carnival's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carnival's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carnival's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carnival's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Carnival is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carnival's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.