Cogent Communications Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 82.21
| CCOI Stock | USD 83.79 2.39 2.94% |
Cogent |
Cogent Communications Target Price Odds to finish below 82.21
The tendency of Cogent Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 82.21 or more in 90 days |
| 83.79 | 90 days | 82.21 | about 85.41 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cogent Communications to drop to $ 82.21 or more in 90 days from now is about 85.41 (This Cogent Communications Group probability density function shows the probability of Cogent Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cogent Communications price to stay between $ 82.21 and its current price of $83.79 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.14 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Cogent Communications has a beta of 0.6 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Cogent Communications average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cogent Communications Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Cogent Communications Group has an alpha of 0.1022, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Cogent Communications Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Cogent Communications
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cogent Communications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cogent Communications Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cogent Communications is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cogent Communications' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cogent Communications Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cogent Communications within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.10 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.60 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.88 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Cogent Communications Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cogent Communications for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cogent Communications can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Insider Sell Lewis Ferguson Sells Shares of Cogent Communications Holdings Inc |
Cogent Communications Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cogent Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cogent Communications' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cogent Communications' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 113.8 M |
Cogent Communications Technical Analysis
Cogent Communications' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cogent Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cogent Communications Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cogent Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cogent Communications Predictive Forecast Models
Cogent Communications' time-series forecasting models is one of many Cogent Communications' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cogent Communications' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cogent Communications
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cogent Communications for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cogent Communications help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Insider Sell Lewis Ferguson Sells Shares of Cogent Communications Holdings Inc |
Check out Cogent Communications Backtesting, Cogent Communications Valuation, Cogent Communications Correlation, Cogent Communications Hype Analysis, Cogent Communications Volatility, Cogent Communications History as well as Cogent Communications Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Is Diversified Telecommunication Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cogent Communications. If investors know Cogent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cogent Communications listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 228.092 | Dividend Share 3.88 | Earnings Share 0.69 | Revenue Per Share 20.531 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) |
The market value of Cogent Communications is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cogent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cogent Communications' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cogent Communications' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cogent Communications' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cogent Communications' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cogent Communications' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cogent Communications is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cogent Communications' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.